Alike in previous quarter, the market remained active in the fourth quarter of 2025. A total of 60 sales contracts (contracts under the law of obligations) were signed during the quarter (Q3 2025: 60; Q4 2024: 34). In the 12 months of 2025, we signed a total of 176 sales contracts, which exceeds the result of the previous year by 36% (2024: 129), includes the first four sales contracts in Berlin, and marks Liven’s highest annual result to date.

The largest contribution to new contracts signed during the quarter came from sales in the Iseära and Peakorter projects. Throughout the year, the Iseära project contributed the most to signed sales contracts, while the remaining sales were distributed more evenly across various projects.

The weekly sales ratio, which reflects the number of homes going out of supply through either sales contracts or paid reservations, was lower in the fourth quarter than the peaks of the first half of 2025 but stabilized largely near the lower end of the long-term average (1.5-2.0%). The ratio fluctuates over time due to the sales and supply cycles of projects. In the fourth quarter, the number of offers rose to a higher level supported by the addition of three new projects.

It is estimated that in 2025, Liven’s market share of new sales transactions in Tallinn and adjacent municipalities was approximately 7-8%, which is lower than the estimated market share of approximately 10% last year, but remains the highest result on the market.

The quarter’s and year’s sales revenue was most strongly impacted by the completion of construction and handover of homes in the first phase of the Regati project. The Iseära project also had a significant impact on both quarterly and annual sales revenue. During the quarter, we also sold two previously completed homes in the Luuslangi project and the last home in the Magdaleena project, marking the full realization of the project.

Sales contracts signed during the period that are not transferred under a real right contract within the same period are recognized as presales. As of the beginning of the quarter, the estimated value of previously recognized presales was EUR 55 million (beginning of 2025: EUR 35 million).

Due to the completion of construction and handover of homes, a significant part of the previous presales was realized as sales revenue in both the Regati and Iseära projects. During the quarter, we signed new sales contracts amounting to EUR 14.7 million in sales revenue, of which presales accounted for EUR 9.7 million (net EUR 8.7 million). We enter 2026 with a presale portfolio of 101 homes, with a contractual sales revenue volume of EUR 33.7 million. Presales do not include the Peakorter I phase, as the 50/50 joint venture is not consolidated line-by-line and sales revenue is not reflected in the consolidated results.

In Q4, homes in the Regati I phase were completed, of which we handed over 64 homes. In addition, we handed over 16 freshly completed homes in the Iseära project and previously completed homes – 2 homes in the Luuslangi project and the last home in the Magdaleena development. In total, we handed over 83 units during the quarter (Q3 2025: 15; Q4 2024: 24).

The sales revenue for the fourth quarter was EUR 34,888 thousand (Q3 2025: EUR 5,080 thousand; Q4 2024: EUR 8,164 thousand) and the net profit for the quarter was EUR 5,014 thousand (Q3 2025: EUR 132 thousand; Q4 2024: EUR -78 thousand). During the year, we handed over a total of 139 new homes (2024: 92), earned EUR 49,287 thousand in sales revenue (2024: EUR 27,266 thousand) and EUR 5,415 thousand in net profit (2024: EUR 558 thousand).

Due to the handover of completed homes, the volume of assets decreased by EUR 13,726 thousand during the quarter to EUR 86,457 thousand. Construction loans were issued in the amount of EUR 4,967 thousand during the quarter, but primarily due to repayments of Regati project construction loans, the volume of construction loans decreased by EUR 24,684 thousand by the end of the year, amounting to EUR 5,662 thousand.

Other loan liabilities increased by EUR 3,888 thousand during the quarter due to the long-term financing of new properties and the refinancing of the Juhkentali project with a bank loan on more favorable terms following the establishment of the detailed spatial plan. In total, the volume of loan liabilities decreased by EUR 15,829 thousand during the quarter, reaching EUR 46,732 thousand. The balance of cash and cash equivalents increased by EUR 2,927 thousand during the quarter to EUR 8,553 thousand.

Due to the continuation of construction in five development projects, the total volume of loan liabilities will grow in the first half of the year. With the completion of construction and the associated handover of homes, the volume of loan liabilities will decrease again by the end of 2026.

Consolidated statement of financial position

Consolidated statement of comprehensive income

The customer satisfaction score for the last 12 months, collected at different stages of the customer journey, remained stably high at the end of the fourth quarter – 9.6 points out of 10 (Q3 2025: 9.5; Q4 2024: 9.2).

Key events in development projects

During the quarter, the first homes in the Regati I phase were completed and handovers began. By the end of the quarter, we handed over 57% of the homes completed in the phase. In December, a building permit was issued for the II phase of the project. We plan to start presale and construction during 2026. During the quarter, we also handed over homes in the last terraced houses of the freshly completed Iseära second phase, as well as the last home in the Magdaleena project.

In October, construction works began on the Virmalise project, where a four-story residential building with 28 new homes and a closed courtyard area will be completed at Virmalise tn 3 by the end of 2026. The general contractor for the construction is Bildgren Ehitus OÜ and the authors of the architectural solution are Liven and Arhitektuuribüroo Kuup Ruut OÜ. The construction is financed by Bigbank AS.

In October, we also started construction works on the new Iseära apartment buildings (Lutsu tn 2, 4 and 6), where 36 new homes will be completed in the autumn of 2026. The general contractor for the apartment buildings is Oma Ehitaja AS and the construction is financed by Bigbank AS.

During the quarter, new homes were added to sales in the Olemuse project and presale began in the next phases of the Luuslangi and Iseära projects. A total of 79 new homes.

We acquired a development property at Järveotsa tee 16c in the Haabersti district of Tallinn through an auction. A residential building complex, along with commercial spaces that add value to the local living environment, is planned for the nearly 13,300 m² property. The transaction value is EUR 1.1 million and the total estimated investment volume of the project is approximately EUR 20 million.

During the quarter, we financed both the Järveotsa tee 16c property and the Linnamäe tee 21a property acquired in the previous quarter with long-term secured loans. We also refinanced the Juhkentali project with a secured bank loan following the establishment of the detailed spatial plan in the previous quarter. The total volume of these new loans is EUR 4,195 thousand.

According to the Kantar Emor survey published in the fourth quarter, Liven shared the first place in the ranking of the reputation of real estate developers this time. Liven continues to be known for the most attractive developments.

During the year, we signed a cooperation agreement with Oma Grupp OÜ for the development of the Peakorter I phase project (50/50 joint venture), signed a sales contract for part of the commercial land on the Kadaka tee 88 property, started six more constructions in various development projects, paid EUR 180 thousand in dividends and issued a second series of green bonds in the amount of EUR 6 200 thousand.

Events after the reporting period

In January, we refinanced the loan liabilities of the Regati project and the costs arising from additional and modification works with the previous financier of the project, secured by the completed homes.

In January 2026, we signed a general contract for the construction of the next residential buildings of the Luuslangi project II phase with Mitt & Perlebach OÜ, who is also the general contractor for the earlier residential buildings of the development project. 39 homes will be completed in the residential buildings at Jalami tn 4 in the first half of 2027.

The Tallinn City Government approved the detailed spatial plan for the Kadakadabra development project, the establishment of which by the Tallinn City Council we expect in the near future.

Significant developments in the economic environment in the period under review

After the earlier downward trend, the 6-month Euribor stabilized in the third quarter of 2025 and showed only a slight increase in the fourth quarter, reaching 2.14% by the end of the quarter (30.09.2025: 2.10%; 31.12.2024: 2.57%). Inflation in the euro area has remained close to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) long-term target (2%). After several base interest rate cuts (by a total of 100 basis points in four stages) in the first half of 2025, the ECB left interest rates unchanged at both the September and December meetings, citing the need to assess the impact of previous decisions on the economy. The ECB forecasts inflation for 2025–2027 at 2.1%, 1.7%, and 1.9% respectively, which suggests that the monetary policy stance is likely to remain stable in the near term.

In Estonia, the annual consumer price growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 continued to be faster than in the euro area, with prices rising by 4.1% compared to the same period of the previous year (Q3 2025: 5.2%; Q4 2024: 3.9%). According to Eesti Pank’s latest forecast, average inflation in 2025 will be approximately 4.9%, reflecting the impact of production costs, tax increases, and continued wage growth. The annual average consumer price index growth in 2025 was 4.8%, primarily influenced by the price increase of food and services and tax changes

Based on the latest available data from Statistics Estonia and our estimates, the average gross wage grew by nearly 6.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, outpacing consumer price growth. Despite wage growth, consumer confidence has remained low for a prolonged period, as confirmed by economic experts’ estimates, even if the situation is not objectively comparable to historical lows as indicated by data compiled by the Estonian Institute of Economic Research.

Looking into 2026, a noticeable recovery in household purchasing power is expected. While the growth rate of gross wages is stabilizing, the income tax changes entering into force on 1 January 2026 will increase people’s net income by approximately 10% according to Eesti Pank forecasts, significantly exceeding the expected price increase. This will improve real purchasing power and increase the affordability of real estate.

According to the Land and Spatial Development Board’s purchase and sales statistics, the number of apartment (residential) transactions in Tallinn decreased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter (Q4 2025: 2,193; Q3 2025: 2,356 transactions). The number of transactions in 2025 reached 9,020, exceeding the previous year by 7.5% (2024: 8,387 transactions). Transaction activity during the year increased mainly in the secondary market, but a moderate pick-up was also noticeable in the new developments segment, pointing to a gradual market recovery.

Compared to the third quarter of 2025, sales offers for new developments and the average sales price remained generally stable in the fourth quarter, but there was a moderate increase in offers and price levels during the year. In a year-on-year comparison, the average number of sales offers for new apartments increased by 8.7% according to Citify data (2025: 2,760 units; 2024: 2,523 units), with a total of 1,752 new apartments added to the Tallinn new developments market during the year. The average price per square meter also increased by 4.3% compared to the previous year (2025 average: 4 987 €/m²; 2024 average: 4,782 €/m²).

According to Citify data, 368 sales contracts were signed in Q4, which is 12.8% less compared to the previous quarter (Q3: 422) and 18.8% less compared to the same period of the previous year (Q4 2024: 453). In 2025, a total of 1,515 apartments were sold in Tallinn, which is 23.1% more than in the previous year (2024: 1,229). In addition, a total of 809 apartments were sold on the outskirts of Tallinn during the year, which was 49.8% more than in the previous year. (2024: 540) according to Citify data, indicating a greater recovery in demand specifically outside Tallinn.

Over the last three years, the stock of completed apartments on the market has clearly increased. The average number of completed apartments in 2025 increased by 12.9% compared to the 2024 average (2025: 988 apartments; 2024: 875 apartments). Throughout the year, the number of completed apartments was relatively high, accounting for an average of 36.1% of the total supply (2024: 34.5%).

Outlook for the future

We expect growth in the new developments market in 2026. Euribor, the factor that influenced the market most in previous years, normalized during 2025, and we consider its impact neutral in 2026. While in previous years tax policy decisions had a dampening effect on demand and increased uncertainty, in 2026 they will be replaced by a change having a positive impact on household incomes. The establishment of a unified tax-free minimum continued real wage growth, and the forecast improvement in the economic environment will significantly improve the financial position of households and create a firmer basis for making purchase decisions. Due to the interaction of these factors, we forecast growth in demand and further normalization of the real estate market.

Broadly speaking, market development continues to depend largely on external factors, primarily the geopolitical situation and general consumer confidence. The results of recent years have confirmed that demand for our homes exists even in a challenging environment.

In the completed year 2025, we handed over 139 units out of a possible 194 and realized nearly 66% of the maximum possible sales revenue, i.e., EUR 49.3 million out of a possible EUR 75 million. The result is consistent with the forecast range adjusted in the autumn (EUR 45–50 million), but reflecting the timing of construction completion and home handovers, it remained lower compared to the more ambitious expectation set at the beginning of the year (EUR 55 million).

We are entering 2026 with significantly larger volume. In buildings completed and to be completed during the year, we have the potential to hand over up to 268 homes and commercial spaces with an estimated sales revenue volume of EUR 86 million. We forecast dynamics similar to the previous year, in the order of realizing 2/3 of the possible volume, which would mean approx. 20% growth in sales revenue compared to the 2025 result.

At the beginning of the year, we have a presale portfolio of 101 homes and EUR 33.7 million in six different projects. In addition to market demand, the sales revenue achieved during the year also depends on the timely completion of construction and handovers before the end of the year.

The 2025 net profit of EUR 5.4 million and the return on equity of 28.1% exceeded our long-term return on equity target of 20% as expected. Along with sales revenue growth, we also expect net profit growth in 2026 and exceeding the 20% return on equity target.

As is characteristic of Liven’s business model, construction loan volumes are cyclical and depend heavily on the composition of the development portfolio. Due to ongoing construction works, we expect construction loan volumes to increase until mid-2026. In the second half of the year, especially in the last quarter, we expect a rapid decrease in the loan balance due to home handovers.

Real estate development is characterized by a long time lag in financial results and a temporal shift between marketing expenses and sales revenue. We laid the foundation for a good result in 2026 with sales and construction started in the past year, and we continue to work towards the results of 2027 and subsequent years. Of the projects currently under construction, Peakorter I phase and Wohngarten in Berlin, Germany, will be completed in 2027. In the near future, we hope for the completion of the ongoing planning proceedings regarding the Kadaka tee 88 property and later during 2026 also regarding the Erika 12 property.

New property acquisitions made in the second half of the completed year 2025 add both a new region and temporal continuity to the development portfolio. Liven’s development portfolio continues to have sufficient volume for the next 4–5 years, but to increase the development portfolio, we are actively looking for new properties and negotiating their acquisition or development in cooperation with landowners.

Liven-2025-Q4-interim-report