In Q3 2025, Estonian GDP increased by 0.9% y/y and by 0.4% q/q (seasonally and working day adjusted – swda) in real terms, according to Statistics Estonia. In the first three quarters, real GDP grew by 0.3% over the year.
Growth in domestic demand was mainly driven by strong government consumption and investment.
Private consumption was lower than a year ago. However, a long-awaited increase in consumer confidence during autumn was likely supported by positive outlook for household finances next year – easing of inflation and personal income tax changes. Real net wages are expected to grow strongly next year, supporting household confidence, housing market activity, and private consumption.
Investments decreased somewhat in the third quarter. While household and government investments increased, non-financial corporations’ investments fell over the year. Still, strong credit growth by both nonfinancial corporations and households should support higher investment ahead. The massive fiscal stimulus will help speed up economic growth in 2026.
Export growth was strong in the third quarter and slightly outpaced import growth. Both goods and services exports increased over the year. Despite global trade tensions, we expect foreign demand to continue improving, allowing Estonia’s export sector to sell more goods and services next year.
We expect Estonian economy to grow by 0.6% this and by 2.3% next year.
