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Swedbank: Estonia: the economic recession is receding gradually

30.10.2023
  • SwedbankIn Q3, GDP dropped 2.5% y/y in real terms and remained on the same level compared with the previous quarter (swda), according to the flash estimate of Statistics Estonia.
  • The GDP flash estimate was close to our expectations.
  • Estonian GDP has contracted 3% y/y in the first three quarters of the year.
  • The recent deep contraction of manufacturing output, export and retail volumes have stabilised.
  • The slowdown of the decline is expected to continue in Q4 this year and we forecast sluggish economic recovery in 2024.
  • Despite the prolong recession, Estonian labour market has remained strong.

Full report

Seonduvad uudised

  • 31.05.2018 Swedbank: Deceleration of economic growth in 1Q2018 was expected
    GDP growth in Estonia decelerated to 3.6% yoy in 1Q2018 in real terms. The slowdown was expected, as close to 5% growth in 2017 was above the potential, by far. Nominal GDP growth decelerated to 8%, but it’s still very&hellip         
  • 28.02.2020 Swedbank: Last year’s economic growth surprised on the upside
    In 2019, Estonian GDP growth was 4.3% y/y in real terms and 7.7% y/y in nominal terms. Although, the growth slowed from previous year, it was still strong and exceeded our expectations – our forecast, published in January, was 3.7%.         
  • 02.03.2023 Swedbank: Estonia: recession deepened towards the end of 2022
    In Q4 2022, GDP contracted 4.1% y/y (non-adjusted) and 1.6% q/q (swda) in real terms. Quarter-on-quarter GDP fell throughout 2022. In 2022, GDP fell 1.3% in real terms, but expanded 15.1% in nominal terms – the fastest result of the         
  • 01.06.2023 Swedbank: Estonia: GPD fell for the fifth quarter in a row
    In Q1 2023, GDP contracted 3.2% y/y (non-adjusted) and 0.6% q/q (swda) in real terms. GDP contraction met our expectations. In nominal terms, Estonian economy expanded 9.3%, above the long-term average. Estonian economy has contracted five quarters i         

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