In Q2 2024, Estonian GDP dropped 1% y/y in real terms (seasonally non-adjusted) and it remained at the same level compared to the previous quarter (seasonally and working day adjusted – swda), according to the updated estimate of Statistics Estonia. In nominal terms, GDP growth picked up to 2.8% y/y in Q2.
Economic recession in Estonia, that lasted eight quarters in a row, has ended. The economy contracted 1.6% y/y in the first half of the year, but we expect it will improve gradually in the second half of the year. Economic recovery is mainly supported by external factors – improving foreign demand and falling interest rates, while weak confidence and planned fiscal consolidation will slow the growth, especially next year.
We expect that the Estonian economy will decline 0.6% in real terms, this year. The proposed taxes together with the government spending cuts are expected to reduce GDP growth by more than a percentage point in 2025. We forecast 1.5% GDP growth next year. The recovery of the Estonian economy requires, among other things, a significant improvement in confidence.
Tõnu Toompark on kinnisvaraanalüütik, -konsultant ja koolitaja, kelle tegevusvaldkonnad on valdavalt: * elamispindade turg, turutrendid, tehingud, hinnad ning turuülevaated; * uute korterite arendamise mahud, müük, hinnad ja analüüsid; * üürituru pakkumine, tehingud ja hinnad ning üüriinvesteeringud, tasuvusarvutused; * elamispindade kättesaadavus numbrilisena; * koolitused eeltoodud valdkondades. Koolituste valdkonnaga on Tõnu Toompark seotud üle 25 aasta. Ta on avaldanud sadu ja sadu kinnisvarateemalisi analüüse, artikleid ja kommentaare. Tõnu Toompark on läbi viinud koolitusi nii kesk-, kutse-, kõrg-, kui ülikoolides, lisaks mitmetes koolitusettevõtetes. Näiteks Kinnisvarakool, Tallinna Tehnikaülikool, Eesti Ettevõtluskõrgkool Mainor, Estonian Business School, Tartu Ülikool, Tallinna Majanduskool.
