In Q4 2023, Estonia’s GDP dropped 3.0% y/y in real terms and remained on the same level compared to the previous quarter (swda), according to the flash estimate of Statistics Estonia.- Estonian GDP contracted 3.5% y/y (swda) and 3.4% (non-adjusted) in 2023.
- GDP flash estimate was close to our expectations.
- The recent deep contraction of manufacturing output and retail volumes is slowing.
- At the same time, Estonian overall economic sentiment has continued to deteriorate.
We forecast that the Estonian economy will rebound to the year-on-year growth in the second half of this year, but it will decline 0.3% over the full year of 2024. The expected improvement of foreign demand will enable Estonian enterprises to increase their exports in the second half of the year.
Although real wages are increasing since the middle of 2023, private consumption is expected to start to increase with a delay, as households’ confidence is still very weak. The decline in interest rates will be a relief for households and nonfinancial corporations.
Tõnu Toompark on kinnisvaraanalüütik, -konsultant ja koolitaja, kelle tegevusvaldkonnad on valdavalt: * elamispindade turg, turutrendid, tehingud, hinnad ning turuülevaated; * uute korterite arendamise mahud, müük, hinnad ja analüüsid; * üürituru pakkumine, tehingud ja hinnad ning üüriinvesteeringud, tasuvusarvutused; * elamispindade kättesaadavus numbrilisena; * koolitused eeltoodud valdkondades. Koolituste valdkonnaga on Tõnu Toompark seotud üle 25 aasta. Ta on avaldanud sadu ja sadu kinnisvarateemalisi analüüse, artikleid ja kommentaare. Tõnu Toompark on läbi viinud koolitusi nii kesk-, kutse-, kõrg-, kui ülikoolides, lisaks mitmetes koolitusettevõtetes. Näiteks Kinnisvarakool, Tallinna Tehnikaülikool, Eesti Ettevõtluskõrgkool Mainor, Estonian Business School, Tartu Ülikool, Tallinna Majanduskool.
