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Swedbank: Long-lasting recession continued in the second quarter

01.08.2023
  • SwedbankIn Q2 2023, GDP dropped 3% y/y and 0.3% q/q (both swda) in real terms, according to the flash estimate of Statistics Estonia. GDP contraction in Q2 was below our expectations.
  • However, the economic contraction is receding gradually.
  • Estonian economy has fallen six quarters in a row in quarter-on-quarter and five quarters in year-on year comparison. At the same time, labour market is strong and wage growth is robust.
  • The fall of manufacturing output and retail trade volumes have intensified. Deflated export of goods is still far below the level we saw in the same period in 2022. The growth of the number of accommodated tourists slowed in the first two months of Q2 compared to what we saw in Q1.
  • Economic sentiment continued to deteriorate in Q2.
  • Real wages are rising again, and we expect that households will start to increase their consumption volumes with a certain time lag. The receding contraction of VAT and excise tax receipts refers to the gradual improvement of economic activity.

Read full report here

Seonduvad uudised

  • 29.05.2017 Swedbank: Slower growth of wages reduces macroeconomic risks
    The growth of average monthly gross wages slowed to 5.7% in the first quarter. We expect gross wages to grow by around 6% this year. The growth of the average gross monthly wage decelerated from 7.6% in 2016 to 5.7%,…         
  • 30.11.2017 Swedbank: Robust GDP growth continued in 3Q2017 as expected
    In 3Q2017 Estonian GDP expanded 4.2% yoy and 0.3% qoq (swad) in real terms. In nominal terms, GDP increased by 8.9% yoy. During the first three quarters, GDP has increased by 4.8% yoy in real terms. The major contribution to&he         
  • 28.02.2020 Swedbank: Last year’s economic growth surprised on the upside
    In 2019, Estonian GDP growth was 4.3% y/y in real terms and 7.7% y/y in nominal terms. Although, the growth slowed from previous year, it was still strong and exceeded our expectations – our forecast, published in January, was 3.7%.         
  • 31.08.2020 Estonian economy dropped less than expected in Q2
    In the second quarter of 2020, Estonian economy dropped by 6.9% y/y in real terms and 8.4% in nominal terms. Seasonally and working day adjusted GDP dropped by 5.6% q/q. The result exceeded our expectations on the upside. In the         

Meist

Tõnu Toompark on kinnisvaraanalüütik, -konsultant ja koolitaja, kelle tegevusvaldkonnad on valdavalt: * elamispindade turg, turutrendid, tehingud, hinnad ning turuülevaated; * uute korterite arendamise mahud, müük, hinnad ja analüüsid; * üürituru pakkumine, tehingud ja hinnad ning üüriinvesteeringud, tasuvusarvutused; * elamispindade kättesaadavus numbrilisena; * koolitused eeltoodud valdkondades. Koolituste valdkonnaga on Tõnu Toompark seotud üle 25 aasta. Ta on avaldanud sadu ja sadu kinnisvarateemalisi analüüse, artikleid ja kommentaare. Tõnu Toompark on läbi viinud koolitusi nii kesk-, kutse-, kõrg-, kui ülikoolides, lisaks mitmetes koolitusettevõtetes. Näiteks Kinnisvarakool, Tallinna Tehnikaülikool, Eesti Ettevõtluskõrgkool Mainor, Estonian Business School, Tartu Ülikool, Tallinna Majanduskool.

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