Estonia’s real GDP increased by 2.1% y/y and by 0.4% q/q (seasonally and working day adjusted – swda) in the second quarter of 2026. This is the first estimate that is usually substantially revised later.
The personal income tax reform has boosted households’ purchasing power. Swedbank’s card payment data suggest that consumer spending has strengthened. In the second quarter, the average net wage of Swedbank’s private customers was nearly 10% higher than a year earlier.
Exports of goods and services strengthened in the second quarter compared with the first. Export prospects for Estonian companies are expected to improve over the course of this year.
Strong loan demand from businesses and households in recent quarters points to a pickup in investment. Government investment is also expected to increase this year, particularly in defense and infrastructure.
As first-quarter GDP growth exceeded our expectations, we may revise Swedbank’s 2026 GDP growth forecast of 2.0% slightly upward. However, this will depend on the GDP data revision due in mid-August, which may alter the comparison base.
