Manufacturing weakness is spilling over to the rest of the economy Core inflation finally starts dropping ECB hiking is done, cuts on the horizon In Europe, disappointing data continued pouring throughout the summer and into the fourth quarter. Manufacturing continued…
In Q2, Estonian GDP declined 2.9% y/y (non-adjusted) and 0.2% q/q (swda). GDP has contracted 3.3% in real terms in 1H 2023. The GDP decline has receded gradually, while the largest contraction remained in 4Q 2022. We forecast 2% GDP…
In Q2 2023, GDP dropped 3% y/y and 0.3% q/q (both swda) in real terms, according to the flash estimate of Statistics Estonia. GDP contraction in Q2 was below our expectations. However, the economic contraction is receding gradually. Estonian economy…
All key interest rates increased by another 25 basis points, to record high levels l We maintain our forecast that this was the last rate increase in current hiking cycle As expected, today the Governing Council decided to raise all…
Sweden: Economic growth has weakened Baltics: Insufficient demand and falling inflation Risks: Even weaker demand, higher unemployment, geopolitical pressures, deglobalisation Sustainability: Continued improvements are needed Swedish economy showed more resilience than expected in the first quarter, although a substantial positive…
A 25bp hike and an end to APP reinvestments Another and possibly final hike in July Governing council served no surprises in today’s policy decision meeting. All key policy rates were increased by 25 basis points (bp). The council signaled…
In Q1 2023, GDP contracted 3.2% y/y (non-adjusted) and 0.6% q/q (swda) in real terms. GDP contraction met our expectations. In nominal terms, Estonian economy expanded 9.3%, above the long-term average. Estonian economy has contracted five quarters in a row…
The situation in the labor market is still good, despite the year-long recession in the economy. The number of the employed is record-high (up by 3.2%, over the year) and the unemployment rate is relatively low. According to Statistics Estonia,…
COMMENTARY FROM MANAGEMENT Q1 2023 revenue for Merko Ehitus was EUR 76 million, representing 11% growth compared to the same period a year ago. Net profit for the first quarter was EUR 5.9 million – nearly double that of Q1…
A smaller but not the final interest rate hike We reiterate our forecast of two more 25 basis points hikes in June and July As widely expected, the ECB governing council decided to raise all three key interest rates by…
Uncertainty in the economy has not disappeared with the arrival of the new year, and the dynamics of the construction market is a direct reflection of this. Many private developments are frozen or on hold, public construction procurements have not…
AS Merko Ehitus consolidated audited financial results for 2022 remain unchanged compared to the preliminary disclosure on 9 February 2023. STATEMENT OF THE CHAIRMAN OF THE MANAGEMENT BOARD 2022 was a year of good financial results for Merko. Revenue broke…
In Q4 2022, GDP contracted 4.1% y/y (non-adjusted) and 1.6% q/q (swda) in real terms. Quarter-on-quarter GDP fell throughout 2022. In 2022, GDP fell 1.3% in real terms, but expanded 15.1% in nominal terms – the fastest result of the…
The economy heat index (EHI) rose rapidly over 2022. Rapid post-pandemic recovery and economic stimulus led to a strong growth in demand and a labour market recovery. Meanwhile, war-induced disruptions and energy shock adversely affected the supply side. Strong demand,…
The Governing Council raised all key interest rates by another 50 basis points and expects to raise them significantly further Despite expected recession, the ECB revised inflation projection upwards As widely expected, the Governing Council today decided to raise all…
