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Swedbank: Estonia’s economic recession continued in Q4 2023

04.03.2024
  • SwedbankEstonia’s GDP dropped 2.7% year-on-year in Q4 2023 and 3.0% in 2023 in real terms (non-adjusted), according to Statistics Estonia.
  • In quarter-on-quarter comparison, GDP continued to contract in Q4, falling by 0.7% (swda).
  • Nominal GDP growth slowed to 4.6% in 2023, while it was the weakest of the last eight years (excl. 2020). Nominal GDP level remained above the long-term trend in 2023, while it fell below it in real terms.

More than one third of the GDP decline in 2023 came from energy production. Contraction of transportation, manufacturing and construction had larger negative impact, as well.

As export of goods and services dropped more than imports, foreign trade deficit expanded and had large negative impact on GDP last year. Private consumption fell 1.5% in real terms, while after five quarters in contraction, it turned to a modest growth in Q4. Meanwhile, fixed capital investments dropped 3.4% in real terms – nonfinancial corporations’ investments declined, while household and government investments increased.

Full report

Seonduvad uudised

  • 28.02.2020 Swedbank: Last year’s economic growth surprised on the upside
    In 2019, Estonian GDP growth was 4.3% y/y in real terms and 7.7% y/y in nominal terms. Although, the growth slowed from previous year, it was still strong and exceeded our expectations – our forecast, published in January, was 3.7%.         
  • 30.11.2020 Swedbank: Estonian economy rebounded rapidly in the third quarter
    In the third quarter of 2020, Estonian economy dropped by 1.9% y/y in real terms (seasonally and working day non-adjusted). Seasonally and working day adjusted GDP rose by 3.3% q/q. The result was close to our expectations. In the first         
  • 07.10.2021 Swedbank: Inflation accelerated further in Estonia
    In September, consumer prices increased by 6.6%, over the year. 60% of the increase in prices came from energy products, especially more expensive electricity and motor fuels.  Wages and pensions have risen at least as much as prices.  Higher price         
  • 14.11.2016 Despite meagre GDP growth, several economic indicators have improved
    Economic growth in Estonia continued to be weak in the 3Q. According to the flash estimate, Estonian economy grew 1.1% yoy and 0.2% qoq (seasonally and calendar adjusted). The GDP has increased 1.1% yoy during the first three quarters. We         

Meist

Tõnu Toompark on kinnisvaraanalüütik, -konsultant ja koolitaja, kelle tegevusvaldkonnad on valdavalt: * elamispindade turg, turutrendid, tehingud, hinnad ning turuülevaated; * uute korterite arendamise mahud, müük, hinnad ja analüüsid; * üürituru pakkumine, tehingud ja hinnad ning üüriinvesteeringud, tasuvusarvutused; * elamispindade kättesaadavus numbrilisena; * koolitused eeltoodud valdkondades. Koolituste valdkonnaga on Tõnu Toompark seotud üle 25 aasta. Ta on avaldanud sadu ja sadu kinnisvarateemalisi analüüse, artikleid ja kommentaare. Tõnu Toompark on läbi viinud koolitusi nii kesk-, kutse-, kõrg-, kui ülikoolides, lisaks mitmetes koolitusettevõtetes. Näiteks Kinnisvarakool, Tallinna Tehnikaülikool, Eesti Ettevõtluskõrgkool Mainor, Estonian Business School, Tartu Ülikool, Tallinna Majanduskool.

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