In Q1 2024, GDP dropped 2.1% y/y in real terms and was slightly lower than in Q4 (swda), according to the flash estimate of Statistics Estonia.- Thus, economic recession continued in Estonia in Q1, while the decline has slowed.
- Economic confidence is still weak, but it has improved somewhat, recently. The decline of the industrial production volume and the contraction of export of goods and services are receding. Households’ purchasing power is improving and it has slowed the decline of retail volume (ex. vehicles).
- We forecast that the Estonian economy will rebound to the year-on-year growth in the second half of this year, but it will decline 0.5% over the full year of 2024.
