Cheaper energy behind deflation• Consumer prices dropped further in August
• Cheaper energy behind the decline in prices
• Inflation expected at -0.2% in 2015 and +1.9% in 2016
August deflation numbers were in line with our expectations. In August 2015, consumer price index fell by 0.3%, month on month and also year on year. Compared to August 2014, goods were 0.7% cheaper and services 0.4% more expensive.
Consumer prices have decreased for more than a year. Consumers, however, do not realise that. According to a survey by the Estonian Institute of Economic Research, only 6% of consumers feel that consumer prices have decreased during the past 12 months and only 2% expect prices to fall during the next 12 months.
Consumer prices declined due to lower energy prices. Motor fuels were 14%, heat energy 5%, and electricity 4%, cheaper than one year ago. On global markets, crude oil prices were around 40% lower than one year ago in EUR (around 50% cheaper in USD, yoy).
Due to cheaper energy, deflation is expected to continue in the coming months. According to our estimates, CPI is expected to decline by 0.2% in 2015, after a marginal drop of 0.1% in 2014. In 2016, consumer prices are expected to grow by 1.9%, of which 0.6 percentage point is a direct impact from higher excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco and motor fuels.
Tõnu Toompark on kinnisvaraanalüütik, -konsultant ja koolitaja, kelle tegevusvaldkonnad on valdavalt: * elamispindade turg, turutrendid, tehingud, hinnad ning turuülevaated; * uute korterite arendamise mahud, müük, hinnad ja analüüsid; * üürituru pakkumine, tehingud ja hinnad ning üüriinvesteeringud, tasuvusarvutused; * elamispindade kättesaadavus numbrilisena; * koolitused eeltoodud valdkondades. Koolituste valdkonnaga on Tõnu Toompark seotud üle 25 aasta. Ta on avaldanud sadu ja sadu kinnisvarateemalisi analüüse, artikleid ja kommentaare. Tõnu Toompark on läbi viinud koolitusi nii kesk-, kutse-, kõrg-, kui ülikoolides, lisaks mitmetes koolitusettevõtetes. Näiteks Kinnisvarakool, Tallinna Tehnikaülikool, Eesti Ettevõtluskõrgkool Mainor, Estonian Business School, Tartu Ülikool, Tallinna Majanduskool.
