In Q4 2025, Estonia’s real GDP increased by 1% y/y and remained unchanged over the quarter (seasonally and working day adjusted – swda), according to the flash estimate from Statistics Estonia. The Estonian economy emerged from the downturn last year,…
Alike in previous quarter, the market remained active in the fourth quarter of 2025. A total of 60 sales contracts (contracts under the law of obligations) were signed during the quarter (Q3 2025: 60; Q4 2024: 34). In the 12…
In Q1 2025, Estonian GDP increased 1.2% y/y in real terms, while it rose 0.1% q/q (seasonally and working day adjusted – swda), according to the flash estimate of Statistics Estonia. As the economy is doing better and export opportunities…
GROUP CEO’S REVIEW The first quarter of 2025 continued the moderate recovery in Estonia’s real estate market that began at the end of 2024. Despite the generally cautious economic sentiment, the market remained stable and showed the first credible signs…
Inflation eased to 2.4% in February, while overall economic growth remained weak. The ECB is likely to provide little forward guidance and reiterate data dependence. In February, headline inflation declined to 2.4% while core inflation eased to 2.6%, the lowest…
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Estonian GDP rose by 1.2% y/y in real terms (seasonally non-adjusted) and 0.7% compared to the previous quarter (seasonally and working day adjusted), according to the updated estimate of Statistics Estonia. The growth was…
BUSINESS CLIMATE Business cycle. In 2024 recession worries came and disappeared in global economy. Towards the end of a year global growth was lower than at the start of a year in almost all major regions, but far away from…
In the third quarter of 2024, Estonian GDP dropped by 0.7% y/y in real terms (seasonally non-adjusted), while remained at the same level compared to the previous quarter (seasonally and working day adjusted), according to the updated estimate of Statistics…
Housing affordability improved in Tallinn and Vilnius, while remained nearly unchanged in Riga. The ECB cut its interest rates by 25 basis points in June; further cuts will continue supporting affordability. As expected, the ECB cut its interest rates in…
Estonian household consumption has been declining since the second half of 2022 and is still falling; however, real wages started to grow in the second half of 2023. Meanwhile, household confidence is at the level last seen during the Global…
In Q1 2024, GDP dropped 2.1% y/y in real terms and was slightly lower than in Q4 (swda), according to the flash estimate of Statistics Estonia. Thus, economic recession continued in Estonia in Q1, while the decline has slowed. Economic…
Inflation is heading down and getting closer to levels in line with inflation targets. Central banks’ policy rates are at peak levels, and the higher-for-longer mantra will soon be replaced with monetary easing. Nevertheless, monetary policy will remain restrictive in…
Manufacturing weakness is spilling over to the rest of the economy Core inflation finally starts dropping ECB hiking is done, cuts on the horizon In Europe, disappointing data continued pouring throughout the summer and into the fourth quarter. Manufacturing continued…
Housing affordability kept decreasing; housing became unaffordable in Vilnius Apartment sales were down, but prices were sticky The rapid increase in wages was insufficient to counter the negative impact of high interest rates and still-elevated prices. As a result, housing…
The average wage growth accelerated to 13.3% in the first quarter from 12.1% in the fourth quarter. Wage growth was rapid and broad-based despite difficult economic times. Wage growth accelerated due to a significant increase in public sector wages, especially…
